Will the US midterm ‘blue tsunami’ erode China’s faith in Trump and Xi’s relationship?

The US midterm elections have resulted in the Democrats gaining control of both the House and Senate, a development that may weaken President Trump's influence in shaping US-China relations, according to analysts. The "blue tsunami" has left Democrats in a stronger position to block legislation, control federal spending, and launch investigations into the Trump administration.

The shift could create obstacles for upcoming meetings between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, potentially "poisoning" the atmosphere of US-China relations and making it more difficult for Trump to elevate US-China relations, warned Xin Qiang, a professor at Fudan University. The Democrats' power to veto legislation and investigations could pressure Trump to resume arms sales to Taiwan and strengthen US military support for the island, which Beijing views as a red line.

Zhao Minghao, another Fudan University professor, noted that newly elected Democratic lawmakers are staunch supporters of Taiwan and may demand more from the Trump administration. Additionally, a Democrat-controlled Congress could accelerate measures to tighten export controls on advanced AI chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China, as well as restrict investments in China's chip sector.

While Trump still has some leverage with Beijing due to US advantages in markets, finance, and technology, he may place greater emphasis on reciprocal returns, raise his asking price, or employ tough rhetoric to deflect domestic criticism. The erosion of Trump's political capital may also complicate his efforts to manage relations with Beijing, as Beijing views maintaining strategic stability as a priority and may struggle to define the new parameters of the US-China relationship, according to Zhao.