Ukraine’s trapped and rotting grain deepens Middle East food fears

Millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain are at risk of being left without proper storage due to Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine, which is turning the Black Sea and its shipping lanes into battlefields. This situation is particularly concerning for countries in the Middle East that heavily depend on Ukrainian grain. The disruption in shipping routes is also affecting the supply of fertilizers and energy exports, contributing to rising food prices.

The Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are critical for global food trade, with Russia and Ukraine responsible for a third of global wheat trade. When shipping through these crucial waterways is disrupted, it leads to increased transport costs, higher energy prices, and overall economic instability. Ukraine exported 29% fewer grains in October 2026 compared to the previous year, and the situation is worsening as Russian attacks continue.

As of October 30, 2026, Ukraine had exported 37.5 million tonnes of grain and pulses, with the Middle East and North Africa being its primary markets. Every month of disruption leaves more of the harvest in Ukraine, putting additional pressure on storage facilities. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, is especially vulnerable, as it relies on competitive prices from the Black Sea region for its wheat imports.