Trump could woo North Korea after midterm setback, but Kim may not respond - analysis

President Donald Trump's defeat in the US midterm elections might lead him to intensify efforts to re-engage with North Korea, but doing so could strain relationships with regional allies. Experts and officials in Asia anticipate Trump will shift his focus to foreign policy as he aims to leave a lasting legacy in the final two years of his term.

With ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, the US president is expected to look to Asia, where he believes he has more room to maneuver. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whom Trump has been eager to restart talks with, is likely to be a crucial figure in this endeavor. According to Ban Kil-joo, an international relations professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul, Trump would likely invest substantial effort in achieving foreign policy successes, especially if he faces more domestic constraints.

While there is currently little motivation for Kim to respond to Trump's diplomatic overtures, the stakes are higher than ever. North Korea's nuclear and missile arsenal has grown, while its ties with Russia and China have strengthened, diminishing Kim's incentive to negotiate and potentially intensifying pressure on Trump to make concessions.

Despite Trump's cordial relationship with Kim, characterized by the president calling him a "great guy" and stating they "get along very well," US and South Korean officials perceive reduced prospects for a meeting this year. Washington has not received a response from Pyongyang ahead of a regional summit in China this month, where such a meeting might have taken place.

Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, has asserted that dialogue remains an avenue to peace, but Pyongyang sees no need for talks at the moment. She has denounced Washington's "hostile policy" while denying allegations that North Korea stole over $6 billion in virtual assets from the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. Regional allies South Korea and Japan oppose any concessions that would allow North Korea to retain its nuclear weapons.

A summit that does not address denuclearization would undermine deterrence and create friction among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo, according to Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. Japanese and South Korean officials are concerned that Trump might deal directly with Kim, bypassing the blessings of Beijing and Moscow, potentially cutting them out of the loop.

Trump has described North Korea as a nuclear power, a label that allies in the region and the West have refused to accept, despite the country's possession of dozens of nuclear warheads and a stockpile of fissile material. If US-North Korea negotiations led Washington to acknowledge North Korea's nuclear status, the security environment in Asia would undergo a significant transformation, as stated by Professor Kazuhiro Maeshima at Sophia University in Japan.