Newly elected BARMM government must prove its worth

Abdulrauf Macacua, a former leader of the Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces, was elected on October 30 as the inaugural chief minister of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). Having served as an interim chief minister for a year, Macacua secured 51 votes out of 80 in the BARMM Parliament, whereas his main rival, Al Haj Murad Ebrahim, received only 27 votes.

The election resulted in a hung parliament, with the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP), led by Macacua, obtaining 31 seats and the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), an offshoot of the MILF, securing 30 seats.

The Philippine President, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., played a significant role in the political landscape, convening a meeting at the presidential palace in Manila to secure an initial 46 legislators' support for the BFP, thereby granting it a governing majority. During the first meeting of the BARMM Parliament on October 30, the president addressed the gathering, highlighting the importance of financial and political backing for the BFP in their efforts to create a coalition of the region's political parties.

With the support of the national government and the regional government, both political entities appear to be closely aligned, despite the fact that the MILF, which negotiated the autonomous region in 2014, has now been politically split into two factions. As political alignment becomes more apparent, it remains to be seen whether the elected BARMM regional government and the former head of the MILF's armed forces will prioritize settling the military track – namely, normalizing the disarmament of former MILF insurgents – as much as they do the political track.

The writer acknowledges that the first elected BARMM government has five years to demonstrate its worth. The success of the government and the progress of the region will largely depend on whether the thorny issues, such as military disarming and addressing the concerns of marginalized sectors, are resolved before the government's term ends in 2031. If not, subsequent governments with shorter mandates may struggle to make a lasting impact, regardless of whether political autonomy is present or not.