'Mega heat waves' strengthened by interaction between soil moisture, atmospheric pressure and temperature
A new study has found that a self-reinforcing interaction between temperature, soil moisture and atmospheric pressure is being triggered at high temperatures, making extreme heat waves 10% hotter than they would otherwise be. The study was published in Science Advances and led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis…
A recent study reveals that extreme heat waves are intensified by a self-reinforcing interaction among soil moisture, atmospheric pressure, and temperature. This phenomenon, identified using machine learning and statistical analysis, boosts the severity of heat waves by up to 10% beyond what would be expected from rising temperatures and drying soils alone.
The research, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, focuses on midlatitude regions like Europe, Russia, Mongolia, North America, India, South America, Africa, and Australia. High-pressure systems enable increased solar radiation and heat the land, while drying soils reduce their cooling capacity through evaporation.
When temperatures surpass a certain threshold, the three factors interact and exacerbate each other's effects. This feedback loop becomes more likely as global warming continues, particularly when temperatures exceed a 4 Kelvin increase above average summer temperatures. Between 1979 and 1983, the probability of Central European temperatures crossing this threshold was 6%, rising to 23% between 2018 and 2022.
Currently, this dynamic is not adequately represented in climate models that predict extreme heat events, potentially underselling the risks of more severe heat waves in the future.
Written by urgent.news from Phys.org's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
