Masa suntuk sukar pulih kepercayaan penyokong PH, Bersatu, kata penganalisis

Analysts suggest that the 10-day campaign period preceding the Melaka PRN election was too brief to rebuild trust between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu supporters, making a full-scale electoral shift unlikely. Universiti Malaya's Tawfik Yaakub noted that overcoming the historical rivalry between the parties, especially the aftermath of the 2020 Sheraton Step which led to the fall of the PH government, is a complex process.

He emphasized that strong Bersatu supporters may find it hard to accept DAP candidates who have long been their target of criticism, while PH supporters still harbor political animosity towards former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin's leadership. Tawfik pointed out that political trust eroded over years cannot be rebuilt solely through brief chief executive understanding during a short campaign.

He also observed that Adly Zahari, the PH Melaka chairman, did not issue any special instructions as PH focuses on winning 24 contested seats while also keeping Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) as main opponents. Tawfik added that even though six Bersatu MPs, including Muhyiddin, signed the Confidence and Capability Agreement (CSA) on October 29, it does not guarantee unity in political cooperation for this PRN election.

PH won 24 out of 28 DUN seats, while Bersatu nominated candidates for seven seats. However, Tawfik believes that pragmatists may still vote for candidates from the other party if the goal of preventing BN and PN victory is considered more important. He estimated that only around 50-60% of supporters might be willing to shift their vote to candidates from the other party in areas where their preferred party is not contesting.

Mazlan Ali, from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, expressed a more optimistic view on the possibility of electoral shift, acknowledging that the 14-day campaign period is insufficient to build full mutual understanding between PH and Bersatu supporters. "Bersatu is no longer an enemy of PH and PH is no longer an enemy of Bersatu. The enemy of PH is BN and PN, and the enemy of Bersatu is also the same," he said.

He expected around 50-60% of supporters to be ready to vote for candidates from the other party in areas where their preferred party is not contesting. Mazlan also noted that the lack of a formal cooperation statement would not prevent a partial electoral shift, as both parties could independently communicate political guidance and directives to supporters without sharing the campaign stage.

He cited PAS's example of directing supporters to vote for Umno in non-contesting areas in Johor, suggesting that if PAS can do it, why not Bersatu or PH?