Børsene skjelver: – Oslo i ekstrem «sweet spot»

Oslo experienced a significant stock market drama on Thursday evening, particularly within the technology sector. The following day, Asia followed in a downward trend, with Japan and South Korea also witnessing substantial declines. The fall affects Norwegian savers who have invested in various funds, and the Norwegian common oil fund has dropped by over 1,000 billion kroner since the start of October.

Nordnet analyst Roger Berntsen believes the market crash will not hit Norway as hard. "Oslo Børs is in an extreme 'sweet spot' considering the global uncertainty," says Berntsen to E24. Several major bourses have fallen sharply in the past week, but global bourses have generally held up well despite high energy prices linked to conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.

AI investments have contributed to its rise. After the U.S. election this week, Democrats gained a majority in both houses of Congress. Skepticism towards data center expansion has been a factor in the election campaign. "We can expect an impact on Oslo Børs, but some was taken out yesterday as U.S. bourses opened before Oslo Børs closed," says Alfred Berg's manager Leif Eriksrød.

"It's not a prolonged turbulence we're facing, more short-lived," he adds. Berntsen from Nordnet believes energy is the biggest bottleneck for the new industry we need to build the world economy on with AI and infrastructure. "I truly believe there's no better 'sweet spot' for Norway because we're number one in energy," he says.

Berntsen believes the Norwegian market will also benefit from high competence in project development and expansion. "After all, that's partly why Oslo Børs is up about 25 percent this year," he notes. Infrastructure for AI is much less developed in Europe compared to the U.S. and Asia, points out Berntsen. However, if capital is significantly hindered in the U.S., he believes it will find other ways.

AI and infrastructure around it are primarily about achieving more productivity gains from every dollar earned, according to Berntsen. "You can squeeze more out in a shorter time, so this has a real positive 'impact' on all sectors of the industry." If there's a slowdown, it could increase the chances of growth momentum slowing in the world economy.

That means lower growth and still a bit too much inflation, which is a bad combination. Both oil and European gas prices plummeted sharply after the U.S. election this week. Analysts note that new attacks on Iran will likely have a higher cost for U.S. President Donald Trump than before. In the meantime, the peace agreement that would allow full flow of energy and other goods through the vital Hormuz Strait is still far away.

Oslo Børs is not as exposed to technology stocks, but is more oil-related, notes Eriksrød. The manager says he will see if there are opportunities if there are significant falls. "Companies have paid a lot of dividends in recent times, so investors have a lot of cash to play with," he says. It remains to be seen if there are opportunities to employ some of that cash. If oil stocks are dragged down, it's a golden opportunity, he says.