Who’ll hold power in the Victorian upper house after the state election?
While much attention has been on Victoria’s lower house, there may also be a power shift in the important upper house.
Less than a month before the Victorian state election, media and public attention remains focused on the possible composition of the lower house of the new parliament. However, the upper house is also crucial. In Victoria, the Legislative Council holds many of the same powers as the Legislative Assembly. The Legislative Council can initiate and reject bills, although it cannot introduce bills seeking to spend money nor reject the government's budget.
Both chambers must approve a bill for it to become law, allowing the upper house to significantly impact government policies even if it cannot block government spending.
Recent polling suggests the Coalition is on track to win a majority government, although numerous variables could still occur before the election. The upper house contest is expected to be more competitive. A recent Morgan poll shows the Coalition winning 12 of the 40 upper house seats, Labor 10, the Greens 8, and One Nation 6, with four seats still undecided.
The voting system used to determine the makeup of the Legislative Council differs from that used in the Legislative Assembly. The upper house uses proportional representation, with candidates needing to secure about 16.7% of the region-wide vote to win. This system was changed in 2026 to require voters to preference at least five parties above the line. This change is intended to limit the ability of small parties to win seats through preferences.
Labor previously won 15 seats, the Coalition 12, the Greens 3, and Legalise Cannabis Victoria 2, while Labour DLP and One Nation won one seat each in the previous election. In 2026, it seems unlikely a single party will gain a majority in the upper house. Recent polls indicate the Coalition's primary vote is in the low 30% range, Labor's mid-20s, One Nation's low-20s, and the Greens in the mid-teens.
If these results were replicated across each region, the Coalition, Labor, and One Nation parties would likely each secure at least one seat due to their primary votes exceeding the 16.7% quota required. Consequently, One Nation or the Greens could potentially hold the balance of power in the upper house, wielding significant power and influence over the next government's policies.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
