Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation

Oil prices declined for a fourth consecutive day on Thursday, November 5, driven by the belief that the recent Republican Party losses in US Congressional elections may lessen the chances of further conflict between the US and Iran. Brent futures slipped 97 cents, or 1.03%, to $93.65 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.14, or 1.29%, to $86.98. Both indexes had dropped more than 8% the previous day to their lowest level since August 31.

Analysts suggest that President Trump's weakened position, given a Democratic-controlled Congress that could limit his military options, may make a deal more feasible. Two sources familiar with Gulf government circles stated on Wednesday that a full-scale attack on Iran now appears less probable. Once the conflict concludes, oil flows from the Middle East could resume, although the road to diplomacy remains fraught with uncertainties.

June Goh, a senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, noted that markets are evaluating the impact of the midterm elections on Trump's actions regarding the Iran war, factoring in a higher likelihood of the war's end. However, volatility is expected to persist as the path to full diplomatic resolution is still unclear, and global strategic reserves have dwindled to a small level.

The resumption of Gulf oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for most Middle East supplies, has nearly returned to pre-war levels, according to analysts. The Gulf oil supply's recovery has re-established the global oil market in a surplus, with JPMorgan estimating that the market reached a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million bpd in October, nearly matching last year’s average.

Despite the oil price decline, experts caution that the sharp drop may be temporary. Mukesh Sahdev, CEO of XAnalysts, stated that prices are unlikely to remain lower after the election, as geopolitical risks are difficult to predict, and the incoming Congress will not take office until January. Additionally, commercial oil inventories in major consuming countries are at their lowest in 15 years, while Iran could potentially emerge from the US election outcome with increased resolve.

US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories all fell last week as demand spiked to its highest level in a year.