What Trump’s midterm elections defeat could mean for the IMO shipping climate negotiations

The recent Democratic victory in the US midterm elections on November 3 has the potential to reshape the United States' approach to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and its climate negotiations. This shift comes after a broader trend towards climate action, following the re-election of Brazil's President Lula in October. The Democratic Party's triumph will grant them the power to oversee the actions of the Trump administration, promoting transparency and accountability.

Experts suggest that this change could hinder Trump's administration's ability to intertwine commercial and political interests, as well as prevent them from threatening economic retaliation against other nations. The Democrats' campaign focused on addressing living costs, promoting clean energy, and placing checks on executive power. Their success underscores a growing public rejection of policies that exacerbate climate change and increase household expenses.

The Trump administration has been a persistent opponent of the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF), a crucial climate policy aimed at decreasing emissions from ships. In October 2025, US delegates attempted to derail the NZF's adoption by employing undiplomatic tactics and illegal threats against countries and delegates, but they ultimately failed. The IMO will again deliberate on the adoption of the NZF at a two-part summit, starting on November 23.

Jamie Yates, Climate & Renewable Energy Manager at Pacific Environment, encourages IMO Member States to reject delay tactics and formally adopt the Net-Zero Framework. Aoife O'Leary, CEO of Opportunity Green, emphasizes that the US's recent election signals a significant interest in climate action, while Brazil, a key proponent of the framework, has secured another four-year term.

She urges countries to capitalize on this momentum to finalize and advance the Net-Zero Framework, steering the shipping industry towards a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.

Christiaan De Beukelaer, from the University of Melbourne, notes that the Trump administration's obstructive stance at the IMO has been weakened, opening opportunities for other nations to advance the Net-Zero Framework. He believes that China, Brazil, and the EU are the key players to watch, with the time for pre-emptive compromises to satisfy Washington having passed. It is now crucial for countries to deliver decisive action to implement the IMO climate strategy they committed to.