Iran’s Empty Tankers Sit Idle as Visible Crude Loadings Stop

Since September 17, no Iran-affiliated tanker in the Middle East Gulf has shown visible crude loading, as indicated by draft changes. Between July 27 and September 17, MIOC detected only seven tanker loads amounting to 6 million barrels, averaging 113,000 barrels per day. Satellite imagery over Kharg Island from September 18 to November 1 found no dark tankers at either loading terminal.

In the Gulf, 47 tankers owned or linked to Iran, flying Iranian flags or with recent Iranian port visits, still transmit AIS. However, only 25 remain active, with 14 dark since the blockade commenced. Of the 25, 15 appear ballasted, and 11 are VLCCs. Together, they have nearly 24 million barrels of empty capacity. Nine others, including three VLCCs, are laden with about 11 million barrels.

The whereabouts of the crude remain unclear, with three possible explanations. One posits crude moving to onshore tanks at Kharg Island. Another suggests tankers are loading unseen between satellite passes. The third supposes Iran has reduced output and capped wells, risking equipment damage, repair delays, and higher costs. Outside the Gulf, 140 AIS-visible Iran-linked tankers are largely idle, with 115 in ballast and 25 laden.

Of the 76 main holding areas, only three are laden or partly laden. Laden tankers in Asia and the Indian Ocean hold about 9.6 million barrels, with 5.9 million barrels, or 61%, on five tankers bound for China. The three explanations leave distinct traces. A tanker anchored east of Kharg Island shifting position or draft between satellite passes indicates dark loading.

Persistent silence at the terminals would suggest onshore storage and potential output cuts. As the gap extends beyond six weeks, Iran's options narrow further.