What Midterm Blue Tsunami Could Mean for 'Frozen' Housing Market
Now that Democrats won control during Tuesday’s midterm elections, prospective homebuyers are hopeful the tide could turn.
Democrats' midterm victory may usher in new housing legislation as Americans grapple with soaring home prices and soaring mortgage costs. The housing market currently appears "frozen," with prospective buyers and sellers sidelined. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer unveiled a five-point housing plan, emphasizing reduced rents and increased homeownership. This newfound congressional control could enable Democrats to translate these ideas into legislation starting in January.
The housing affordability crisis affects both buyers and sellers. Elevated mortgage rates burden prospective buyers with higher monthly payments, while existing homeowners with lower rates have an incentive to remain in their homes rather than sell. This "lock-in effect" has contributed to low turnover and housing shortages. There's a persistent lack of construction, especially of affordable starter homes.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, changes might be modest. Congress cannot merely lower mortgage rates or coerce homeowners with low pandemic-era rates to sell. Democrats' support for affordable housing and regulation could create a double-edged sword, potentially stifling affordable home production. However, housing may become a focal point of the new Congress' affordability agenda.
Democrats are keen on affordable housing, but they also favor regulation. Kevin Thompson, CEO of 9i Capital Group, suggests a balanced approach is needed to align incentives and supply. Senate Majority Leader Schumer's Opportunity Starts at Home agenda calls for more housing construction, alongside rent control and measures to curb large corporate investors.
Senate Democrats Amy Klobuchar, Lisa Blunt Rochester, and Tim Kaine proposed the Housing Supply and Affordability Act, which would allocate federal grants for housing strategies.
While Republicans may find it challenging to approve substantial new federal spending, the Trump administration has expressed openness to policies aimed at reducing housing costs. Democrats may also focus on assisting buyers rather than builders. Former Vice President Kamala Harris' 2024 campaign proposed up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and enhanced assistance for first-generation buyers.
Democrats have also addressed the influence of large institutional investors in housing. Trump's executive order in January aimed to prevent their acquisition of single-family homes, and his administration has advocated for its codification into law.
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