The economic benefits of the covid vaccines may be double what we thought
The global health and economic benefits of the covid-19 vaccines were thought to have reached up to $38 trillion in their first year, but a new analysis suggests $64.3 trillion is a more accurate figure
A reanalysis of covid-19 vaccine data suggests their health and economic benefits may be twice as significant as previously estimated. The original research estimated a return of $4.8 trillion to $37.9 trillion globally after the vaccines' rollout, but a new study claims the true value could be between $6.43 trillion and $64.3 trillion. This means that for every dollar spent on vaccine development, between $59.70 and $809 was gained in the first year alone.
The updated figures are based on cost-benefit analysis, which considers broader economic impacts compared to the initial cost-effectiveness analysis. Both analyses factored in averted hospitalizations, productivity losses, and lives saved across 173 countries. For instance, the study used an estimate suggesting the vaccines prevented 14 million to 20 million deaths in their first year.
One key factor in the increased returns is a change in how the "value of a statistical life" was calculated. The researchers switched from the Value of Statistical Life Years, which factors in the age of the individual, to the Value of Statistical Life, which treats everyone's life equally. This change led to a significant boost in the economic returns.
However, the benefits weren't evenly distributed. The vaccines yielded the highest returns in wealthier nations, likely because poorer countries accessed the vaccines later, resulting in fewer lives saved and reduced productivity and healthcare cost savings. The study's authors emphasize the need for fair distribution of vaccines to those most in need globally.
These findings reinforce the life-saving success of covid-19 vaccines and highlight their positive impact on the economy. While covid-19 infections can increase the risk of heart issues, inflammation, blood clots, and bleeding disorders in children, vaccination offers a safer alternative. The study challenges the simplistic trade-off between public health measures like lockdowns and economic protection, highlighting the importance of protecting both public health and the economy in future infectious outbreaks or pandemics.
Written by urgent.news from New Scientist's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
