Can Yemen's army pierce the Houthi heartland?

Can Yemen's army break through the Houthi stronghold? Amidst the Iran-backed Houthis' attempts to seize the city of Taiz and encircle government forces near Bab al-Mandab, Yemen's military is advancing through heavily fortified and mined Houthi positions in Al-Jawf governorate, located in northeastern Yemen. Following the recapture of Huwashiyan mountain in late October, the Yemeni army's Emergency Forces reported additional territorial gains around Al-Duhaydha and Mulayfifah on November 3 and 4, as part of a larger effort to control vital high ground, backed by heavy air support from the Arab Coalition and allied popular tribal resistance.

Securing these mountains would enable the Yemeni army to advance toward Bir al-Marazeeq and ultimately reach al-Hazm, crucial to evaluating the campaign's military success as it progresses into open terrain. A successful Yemeni army offensive could alter the military balance, sever Houthi supply lines in the northeastern theater, and potentially reshape the conflict dynamics.

However, multiple factors come into play, including the Yemeni army's ability to sustain its offensive momentum, maintain unity, and overcome Houthi defenses to retake al-Hazm. Al-Jawf's strategic importance cannot be understated, as it borders government strongholds of Marib and Hadramawt, the Saudi frontier, and Houthi-controlled Sana'a, Amran, and parts of Ma'rib.

Regaining control of Al-Jawf would bolster Yemen's army's strategic depth, enhance defense of Marib, decrease security threats along the Saudi border, broaden offensive operations into various fronts, and pressure Houthi defenses, forcing them to allocate resources to defend Sa'ada.

Despite the significance of reclaiming al-Hazm, it does not entirely offset losses along the coast. Nonetheless, a decisive victory would signal that Houthi territorial control is reversible through an effective army campaign. The region's social capital is equally crucial; Al-Jawf's tribal networks, encompassing mobilization capacity, cross-regional connections, and anti-Houthi resistance efforts, are formidable.

The tribal networks have thwarted Houthi attempts to exert control through coercion, intimidation, inducement, co-optation, and patronage. Notably, early tribal mobilizations this year, particularly the Rayyan encampment, illustrate the deep-seated resentment towards reported Houthi repression, monopoly of power, and wealth, as well as humiliation of social figures and interference in customary authority.

Successful Yemeni advances, coupled with mounting local discontent, could bolster the Yemeni government's anti-rebel coalition, encourage realignments beyond Al-Jawf, and rebuild trust between communities and the state. To capitalize on this momentum, it is essential to prioritize stability, state-building, good governance, a unified command structure, and support for local development.

Converting social capital into a sustainable, widespread challenge to Houthi rule is vital for reaching Sana'a. However, tribal politics remain pivotal in understanding local dynamics and the offensive's prospects. While Houthi expansion historically encountered resistance, including from the Dhu Hussein and Dhu Mohammed branches of the Dahm tribe, opposition to Houthi rule does not necessarily translate into unconditional support for the Yemeni government.

Tribal leaders like al-Ukaimi retain distinct interests; they may resist both Houthi coercion and government rule unless incorporated and granted a share of wealth and power.

In Al-Jawf, as in other situations, alliances and alignments are fluid, shaped by tribal balances, local rivalries, personal ambitions, and relationships with governing authorities. During wartime, tactics prove as critical as strategy. Recent government gains in Al-Jawf have fueled optimism that a successful campaign, combined with leveraging social capital, could threaten Houthi strongholds.