Eye on Jawf: can Yemen's army pierce Houthi heartlands?

The Yemeni army has made significant territorial gains in the Al-Jawf governorate, northeast Yemen, as it seeks to outflank Houthi forces and control the strategic mountain heights. After retaking the Huwashiyan mountain in late October, the Yemeni army's Emergency Forces announced further advances on November 3 and 4, 2026, around Al-Duhaydha and Mulayfifah.

Control of these mountains would enable the Yemeni army to advance towards Bir al-Marazeeq and ultimately al-Hazm, potentially cutting Houthi supply lines in the northeastern theatre.

Strategically, Al-Jawf is vital as it borders government strongholds of Marib and Hadramawt, the Saudi frontier, and Houthi-controlled Sana'a, Amran, and parts of Ma'rib. A successful offensive in Al-Jawf would bolster the Yemeni army's defensive positions in Marib, reduce threats to Saudi border security, expand offensive operations, and force the rebels to divert resources to defend Saada. While the recapture of al-Hazm would bolster government positions, it would not compensate for coastal setbacks.

The social capital of Al-Jawf is equally important. Its tribal networks provide mobilisation capacity, cross-regional ties, and resistance efforts against Houthi rule. Tribal networks have demonstrated anti-Houthi resentment through reported coercion, intimidation, and patronage. Successful Yemeni military advances, combined with deepening local discontent, could strengthen the government's anti-rebel coalition, encourage realignments, and rebuild trust between communities and the state.

However, converting social capital into a durable, broad-based challenge to Houthi rule is crucial. Tribal politics remain central to understanding local balances and the offensive's prospects. While Houthi expansion has faced communal resistance in the past, opposition to Houthi rule does not necessarily translate to unconditional support for the Yemeni government. Tribal leaders may resist both Houthi coercion and government rule if not incorporated and given a share of wealth and power.