Republicans underperform as first midterm votes are counted
Early results out of Indiana and Kentucky are in line with polling that’s put Democrats well ahead in the battle for Congress.
As early vote tallies emerged on Tuesday night, they painted a challenging picture for Republicans in the midterm elections, mirroring recent polling that has shown Democrats with a significant lead. In Indiana and Kentucky, two states where most polls closed at 6 pm ET, Democrats outperformed their early voting percentages from two years prior.
They found success in Indiana's 5th Congressional District, located outside of Indianapolis, where Trump secured a 17-point victory in 2024, and in Kentucky's 6th District, which previously went to Trump by a 15-point margin. Neither of these seats were initially considered Democratic targets, but their electoral landscapes shifted as the election environment deteriorated for Republicans.
Indiana Representative Victoria Spartz, known for underperforming for her party in the past, faced a late surge of funding from the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a green energy political action committee that aimed to unseat Republicans who voted to rescind energy credits last year. The Democrats backed their candidate, JD Ford, with nearly $400,000 in expenditures from House Majority PAC, the party's super PAC.
The Kentucky race became a focal point after Rep. Andy Barr stepped down to run for Senate. Republicans put their nomination behind former state Senator Ralph Alvarado, while Governor Andy Beshear endorsed Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a federal prosecutor. Both parties anticipated an uptick in Republican votes as Election Day ballots were counted, yet in both Indiana and Kentucky, the GOP's share of the vote has declined since the 2024 election.
Indiana Democrat Beau Bayh, the son and grandson of former senators, led early vote counts for the statewide secretary of state position, a race his party was competing in. Despite this, Democrats remain cautious in interpreting the significance of early votes, as they overestimated their influence in the 2022 election when they secured votes for Kamala Harris, only to fall behind on Election Day.
Written by urgent.news from Semafor's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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