Republicans underperform as first midterm votes are counted

As first midterm votes began to be counted on Tuesday night, early results indicated that Republicans were facing a challenging night, according to polling which has shown Democrats leading in the race for Congress. The source of this perception rests in public dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump's policies. In Indiana and Kentucky, where polls closed at 6 pm ET, Democrats demonstrated strong performance relative to their early vote totals from two years prior.

This was particularly evident in Indiana's 5th Congressional District, located outside of Indianapolis, where Trump had won by 17 points in 2024, and in Kentucky's 6th District, which had gone for Trump by 15 points. Despite these districts not being initially earmarked as Democratic targets, both races witnessed increased investment as the political climate seemed to be turning against Republicans.

In Indiana, incumbent Rep. Victoria Spartz, who had exhibited underperformance relative to the party in the past, faced a last-minute influx of funding from the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, a green energy political action committee aiming to defeat Republicans who had voted to revoke energy credits the previous year. The Democrats' super PAC, House Majority PAC, contributed nearly $400,000 towards their candidate JD Ford.

The Kentucky seat had become a focal point after Rep. Andy Barr left it to contest a Senate seat. Republicans opted to nominate former state senator Ralph Alvarado, whilst Governor Andy Beshear endorsed Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a federal prosecutor. Despite Republicans anticipating improved performance as Election Day votes rolled in, the party's vote share had consistently declined since 2024 in both Indiana and Kentucky.

Beau Bayh, a Democrat from Indiana, who is the son and grandson of former senators, led in the early count for the position of secretary of state, the sole statewide race where his party was contesting. Nonetheless, Democrats remained cautious about overinterpreting the significance of early votes, a reminder of their own electoral setbacks in 2022 when they amassed votes for Kamala Harris but ultimately faced defeat on Election Day.