Por que a euforia com os data centers já corre risco
Após a aprovação do Redata gerar uma euforia inicial com uma potencial onda de investimentos em data centers no País, a demora na regulamentação da lei está acendendo um sinal de alerta. Até o momento, nenhum novo projeto foi anunciado – e a consultoria Rystad Energy acaba de reduzir suas projeções para a instalação de data centers no Brasil em dois terços: de 21 gigawatts para 7 gigawatts até…
Following the initial wave of euphoria surrounding data centers in Brazil, caution is beginning to surface due to regulatory delays. Currently, no new projects have been announced, and the consultancy Rystad Energy has revised its projections for data center installations in Brazil, from 21 gigawatts to just 7 gigawatts by 2035, citing the lack of clarity on criteria for inclusion in the fiscal incentive plan.
The original government proposal for Redata would only benefit data centers that exclusively use renewable energy. However, the text was altered in Congress to include projects with "low-emission" sources. The Ministry of Mines and Energy publicly defended the inclusion of gas-powered installations in the law, while the Ministry of Finance has advocated for limitations or compensations for fossil fuel use, according to sources speaking to Brazil Journal.
A presidential decree detailing the rules for qualification has not been released yet. There is also pending decision by the Executive Branch on whether natural gas generation qualifies as low-emission, as well as critical details about energy efficiency metrics, local content, and compliance checks, said VP and head of New Energies at Rystad, Marina Domingues, in a report.
In her analysis of Redata, she also cited competition for space on the electrical grid for data center connections and potential limitations in accessing firm energy as factors increasing the risk for project development in the country. Rystad mapped 20.8 GW of potential data centers initially slated for deployment in Brazil by 2035.
That figure drops to an estimated 6.7 GW when all risks are considered. In Rystad's accounts, more than 10 GW of projects are classified as "high risk" and nearly a dozen GW are "medium risk." Even if only low-risk data centers are considered, Brazil's capacity would remain effectively stable over the next decade. Beyond regulation, Redata still requires some definitions at the regulatory agencies level, according to Rystad.
"Unlocking hyperscale investments requires the Congress and Executive Branch to align the timelines for fiscal incentives defined in law with regulatory definitions yet to be written," said the consultancy.
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
