Midterms are bad for incumbents – and even worse when energy prices are high
The US economy is built on energy prices. When people’s bills are high, they tend to vote against incumbents and their parties.
The 2026 midterm elections saw significant results that many are discussing in relation to economic factors, particularly energy prices. Democratic strategist James Carville once famously stated that "it's the economy, stupid," a sentiment that could easily be replaced with "it's energy prices" in recent years.
Energy prices play a crucial role in the overall economy, making the topic inextricably linked to politics, especially when gasoline prices surge. Midterm elections have traditionally been challenging for incumbent presidents and often result in shifts in power within Washington, D.C. Various factors contribute to fluctuations in gasoline prices, but many of these are beyond a president's or Congress's control.
Crude oil and petroleum product prices are primarily determined by global market forces, including supply and demand dynamics.
Oil transport by ocean tankers accounts for over 60% of the world's crude oil, with a significant portion traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, which has faced disruptions since 2026 due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Consequently, rising energy prices can trigger a chain reaction, leading to increased costs for goods like food. These price changes are closely monitored by voters, and incumbents face a higher likelihood of losing their reelection bids when gas prices rise.
During the 2026 midterm election, gasoline prices reached unprecedented highs, placing Republicans in a challenging position as they attempted to defend their record. Four U.S. presidents—Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Joe Biden—had to contend with the repercussions of severe inflation and high fuel prices during their respective midterm elections.
Richard Nixon became the first modern president to face a major energy crisis during his midterm election in 1974. In response to the Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) decision to cut oil production and impose an embargo on the United States following the Yom Kippur War, Nixon implemented federal price controls on petroleum. However, these controls failed to prevent a 32% increase in U.S. gasoline prices.
Gerald Ford succeeded Nixon, and inflation stood at 12.3% when he faced the 1974 midterm elections. To combat inflation, Ford launched the "Whip Inflation Now" (WIN) campaign, but the Republicans suffered significant losses, losing 48 House seats and five Senate seats. By 1976, gas prices had surpassed 60 cents a gallon (equivalent to $3.49 in late 2026 dollars), leading to Ford's loss in the presidential election to Jimmy Carter.
Carter's early presidency was marked by persistently high gasoline prices and inflation. In the 1978 midterm elections, Democrats also experienced setbacks, losing 15 House and three Senate seats. Despite Carter's struggles, he narrowly won the 1980 presidential election against Ronald Reagan. During Reagan's presidency, economic policies aimed at reducing taxes, regulations, and government spending, along with tightening monetary policy, eventually led to a decrease in oil prices and gasoline prices during the 1982 midterm elections.
However, Republicans still suffered losses, and Carter's legacy remained tarnished in the next midterms.
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