Midterms : 5 points que l’Europe doit surveiller après l’écrasante victoire des démocrates face à Trump

Prepare yourselves for a whirlwind of political events, as the Democrats' sweeping victory has set the stage for rigorous investigations into the past two years under Donald Trump's rule. Robert Garcia, a House Democrat and likely future chairman of the oversight committee, advised constituents to "take a lawyer." These electoral results are expected to pave the way for investigations into Iran's war, FBI operations, and the Trump family's business ventures.

This political upheaval is akin to combining Bill Clinton's Whitewater scandal, the first impeachment trial against Trump, and Iran-Contra, with an added touch of Iran-Contra. The impact of such transformative political changes on Europe is significant, as the continent's future hinges on what occurs in Washington. Here are five key areas to monitor:

Firstly, the European Union risks experiencing the repercussions of Trump's growing frustration. Renowned observers warn that this could lead to heightened animosity and more stringent demands from Trump towards Europe during budgetary procedures, oversight hearings, and investigations. They are also likely to impose stricter conditions on White House-backed legislation projects.

However, the U.S. President maintains significant constitutional leeway regarding foreign policy, diplomacy, national security, and trade. Trump has openly leveraged this power through executive orders and unconventional, controversial legal strategies to circumvent Congress.

Next, anticipate more confrontations. Trump, known for asserting his dominance and control over global affairs, will likely attempt to prove his continued leadership. This is particularly likely on the international stage, where he is expected to target Europe. EU leaders have long been in Trump's crosshairs, with MAGA loyalists portraying the continent as a victim in need of rescue from itself. Ukraine, in particular, remains a primary concern for Trump and his supporters, who refuse to accept its independence.

Secondly, Ukraine's immediate assistance is crucial, including additional Patriot missiles for air defense, but the aid process may take months or even years to materialize. The EU must adopt a realistic approach to Ukraine's defense, recognizing that immediate relief won't be forthcoming.

Thirdly, Trump's potential peace initiative with Russia may not yield the desired results. While Trump portrays himself as a peacemaker who ended eight international conflicts, his approach has often been unilateral, with the U.S. Treasury refusing to enforce sanctions and pursuing new energy deals with Russia. While doubts persist about Trump's willingness to compromise on NATO's military presence, observers believe he is unlikely to dismantle the alliance, as he lacks support from both Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Congress and the media.

Lastly, energy prices are unlikely to plummet. Although Brent crude oil recently saw its steepest decline since August, it still trades at $108 per barrel. Unless Trump brokers a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Europe can expect continued high energy costs and exacerbated inflation, further impacting the region's economy.