How Much Is SpaceX's AI Business Really Worth? Here's the Math.
The "super intelligence" segment could be worth $11 trillion in several years.
SpaceX's artificial intelligence (AI) business, now housed under its newly named Super Intelligence (SI) segment, has experienced explosive growth. In the third quarter, SI's revenue surged 830% from $813 million a year ago to $7.56 billion, becoming the segment's top revenue generator. Operating profit reached $431 million, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of nearly $5 billion.
Managing this rapid expansion is SpaceX's AI infrastructure business, which currently accounts for the majority of the SI segment's value. With compute capacity at 1.7 gigawatts, SpaceX aims to reach 13 gigawatts by the end of 2028, with a moonshot goal of 20 gigawatts by the same year. This growth trajectory suggests a substantial increase in annual revenue, as 1 gigawatt of computing capacity costs around $50 billion and generates more than $50 billion in revenue.
Applying a revenue multiple of 5 to this potential AI infrastructure value, SpaceX's AI infrastructure business could be worth $10.75 trillion by 2030. Adding Cursor, acquired for $60 billion, which is projected to reach $33 billion in annual recurring revenue by 2030, and applying a 10x sales multiple, brings Cursor's value to $330 billion. Combining these figures results in a potential AI business valuation of approximately $11 trillion.
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