Harvest of War: Russia’s Grain Export Boom Faces a Test

In recent years, Russia has emerged as a dominant player in the global grain market, often compared to oil due to its economic significance. The rise of Russia as a grain superpower occurred during the Soviet era, when market reforms transformed agriculture, leading to increased efficiency and higher yields. By the early 2000s, Russia had become one of the world's top wheat exporters, with a share of about 10% among major producers.

Grain exports have become a crucial source of revenue for Russia, with export revenues exceeding official expectations. However, this success story was temporarily interrupted by the war in Ukraine, as the Kremlin's primary priority shifted towards addressing the conflict.

Despite facing challenges, Russian agriculture continued to thrive during the war, primarily due to the absence of Western sanctions. Favorable weather conditions led to record harvests in 2022 and 2023, with exports surpassing 70 million tonnes in 2023. Grain exports account for a relatively small portion of Russia's overall foreign trade, but they offer more than just financial gains.

Food has been dubbed a "silent weapon" by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who proposed restricting supplies to "unfriendly" nations. In practice, Russian grain primarily goes to countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa that Moscow classifies as friendly.

Russian authorities have tightly controlled the grain export sector since the start of the war, with state-linked companies handling the majority of shipments. Western traders have largely withdrawn from the market, leaving state or state-affiliated players to dominate the sector. In 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture distributed 90% of the main export quota among 213 companies, with Grain Gates, owned by Demetra and VTB, leading the pack.

Despite the potential for exporting up to 59 million tonnes of grain in 2026, the war has disrupted logistics, causing a significant drop in export volumes.