From Iran to trade: how the US midterms impact the rest of the world

The US Democrats' "blue wave" of midterm election victories has already begun to impact global trade, allies, and enemies alike. Iran and Israel are particularly affected, as voters appear weary of the ongoing conflict with Iran, which they attribute to higher fuel prices. Some Gulf governments now believe that former President Trump was more inclined to seek a peace deal, while Iran might be emboldened by the possibility of a genuine opportunity to end the war.

However, a Democrat-controlled House and Senate may intensify scrutiny of Israel's military operations, potentially threatening US support for Israel through military aid and weapons sales.

The Iran war has caused crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices to rise, driving up fuel pump costs worldwide. The energy market wagers that the elections could boost US-Iran peace talks, but tight stock levels have prevented a significant selloff. Iran and the US remain far apart on a deal, and Trump has expressed readiness for peace talks but is not in a hurry for strikes.

In Ukraine, Trump has halted direct financial and military aid despite broad support from lawmakers. Democrats may propose new aid to Ukraine if they secure bipartisan backing, but it is unlikely to address Ukraine's most pressing need for US-made Patriot air defense interceptors. Democrats may also target Trump's policies, such as lifting sanctions on Russian diesel and waiving sanctions on Russian energy. The Kremlin hopes that the midterm results will not impact Trump's "peacemaking efforts."

The elections could impact trade in Asia, as some countries may slow-walk investment pledges to avoid tariffs. China, however, may gain a perceived upper hand in ongoing trade talks. Many US voters are concerned about the aggressive buildout of AI data centers, which could pressure tech stocks and bring regulatory pressure on AI. Asian chip and AI stocks fell on Wednesday, reflecting investor concerns.