Why Europe shouldn’t celebrate a Democratic midterm victory
Congress has few ways to constrain presidents on foreign policy, leaving Trump room to press his agenda abroad.
Many in Europe are excited about the prospect of a Democratic victory in the U.S. midterm elections, but they should approach the celebration with caution, according to seasoned diplomats and analysts. A Democratic takeover in Congress is unlikely to bring Europe immediate relief, as Donald Trump would still have the ability to focus on foreign policy and trade, where the U.S. executive branch has limited congressional oversight. This could lead to heightened tensions and increased demands on Europe.
Veteran German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger warns that a Democratic victory should not be interpreted as a cause for optimism. He suggests that Europeans should remain restrained and avoid any actions that could provoke Donald Trump further. Former EU foreign policy adviser Nathalie Tocci echoes this sentiment, expressing doubt that Trump would be swayed by restraint and arguing that the ties between Trump's MAGA movement and populist far-right politicians in Europe make any celebration premature.
While a Democratic Congress may be more supportive of Ukraine and NATO, U.S. President Donald Trump still possesses the power to hinder any progress through investigations, impeachment procedures, and aggressive legal challenges. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker believes that Trump will continue to use his legal authority to his advantage, potentially employing pocket rescission to claw back funds appropriated by Congress.
Additionally, Trump may prioritize domestic concerns over international commitments, such as reducing U.S. deployments in Europe.
Although a Democratic victory might provide a morale boost for European liberals and centrists, particularly those critical of populist leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orbán and Serbia's Aleksandar Vučić, it is unclear whether this political shift will lead to a more harmonious transatlantic relationship. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker suggests that Trump's unpredictable nature may lead him to focus on domestic issues or even engage in more confrontational actions, such as relaunching military operations in Iran.
Ultimately, European leaders should not take a Democratic win for granted and should consider the significant changes in the American political landscape, including the strength of the Democratic Party and the influence of the MAGA movement.
Written by urgent.news from Politico EU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
