US midterms: Why voters may punish Trump and Republicans despite booming economy

U.S. voters are set to make their choice in midterm elections on Tuesday, which could potentially weaken President Donald Trump's influence in Washington. Democrats aim to seize control of the House and challenge for Senate dominance. Republicans may lose seats in the House, enabling Democrats to obstruct Trump's legislation and conduct investigations into his administration.

Losing the Senate would hinder Trump's capacity to appoint Supreme Court justices and senior officials. The election serves as a national assessment of Trump, with growing discontent among Americans over rising living costs and the Iran conflict. All 435 House positions and 35 Senate seats, along with gubernatorial races in 36 states, are up for grabs.

Democrats require just three additional House seats and a net four in the Senate to secure both chambers from Republican control. Despite Trump's election last year, focused on lowering prices, inflation, tariffs, and fuel costs stemming from the Middle East conflict have burdened Americans. President Trump's approval rating has remained low, around the low 30s.

In suburban Atlanta, Georgia, 77-year-old Jane Callum, a retired teacher, canvassed for Senator Jon Ossoff, who framed the race as a pivotal moment for the nation's future. Economic difficulties notwithstanding, Republicans argue that Trump's tax cuts and immigration measures will benefit Americans, while portraying Democrats as radical leftists.

However, in his final public campaign appearance on Monday, Trump primarily discussed his problematic renovation of Washington's Reflecting Pool, barely addressing the economy. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer dismissed it as a "disgraceful closing message." Some Republican supporters remain optimistic, with Texas military veteran Yvonne Clouser asserting, "We're going to win.

We've probably already won." Although Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, the contest extends into conservative states such as Kansas, Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska. Democrats must also defend competitive seats, including Michigan, where Congresswoman Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over the Democratic nominee, Abdul El-Sayed.

Decision Desk HQ's final forecast projects 241 House seats for Democrats, versus 194 for Republicans, and a close 52-48 Democratic Senate majority. Disputed outcomes? Polls might underestimate one party's support, and Republicans hope their constituents will vote in large numbers on Election Day. Over 57 million Americans have already voted early, indicating high enthusiasm.

The campaign has generated more than $11 billion in political advertisements, and billionaire Trump ally Elon Musk has contributed significant funds to Republican efforts. As soon as polls close, concerns will arise regarding the acceptance of results by Republicans. Trump, who attempted to overturn his 2020 election loss, has frequently accused Democrats of widespread voter fraud and cheating, without evidence.

The Justice Department, led by a close Trump ally, has sued to potentially block Alaska's Senate certification if Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan loses narrowly, although a court ruled against the effort before the election. The Supreme Court also dismissed an emergency request to exclude over 20,000 mail-in ballots in California on the grounds they may not be from American citizens.

Trump, who will observe the midterm results at the White House on Tuesday night, hinted that if he loses control of Congress, he could defy Democrats, potentially vetoing everything.