The midterms will change US politics. But NZ will keep feeling the Trump effect

As New Zealanders cast their ballots in their general election, Americans are simultaneously participating in their Congressional midterm elections, which could have significant repercussions for both nations. With all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats up for grabs, the political landscape in the United States hangs in the balance.

While Republicans currently hold control of both chambers, a shift in power could grant Democrats a more substantial role. President Donald Trump, who has largely overseen the administration's agenda, has made the midterms a focal point of his campaign, despite his low approval ratings among Americans. Midterms often reflect a president's performance, and with issues such as inflation, high fuel prices, and corruption concerns, it's no surprise that only 32% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance.

The Democrats are expected to gain between five and 24 House seats, potentially reaching a majority with just five additional seats. The Senate, however, presents a more complex challenge. Democrats need 51 seats to attain the majority, currently holding 47 with two independents. They must secure key states like Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, where Republicans are more competitive.

The outcome of the midterms may affect US relations with small nations like New Zealand, though the short-term impact may be less than anticipated. Geopolitical uncertainties, high oil prices, and trade tariffs remain pressing concerns for New Zealand. While Trump's tariffs are unpopular, they are likely to persist despite legal challenges.

The most lasting effect of the midterms may be the waning influence of Trump's MAGA movement in New Zealand politics, as polarization and polarizing rhetoric become less dominant.