Rising crude prices could push India's inflation by upto 1 percentage point, diversified imports helping secure oil supplies: EY's Gaurav Moda

New Delhi - Global crude oil price hikes could elevate India's inflation by up to 1 percentage point, primarily through elevated diesel and logistics costs, according to Gaurav Moda, Partner and Energy Industry Leader at EY India. Speaking to ANI, Moda explained that the surge in crude oil prices from an average of USD 60-65 per barrel to USD 90-95 has significantly increased India's energy import expenses, as the nation continues to focus on securing supplies amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

Crude oil prices have risen from an average of USD 60-65 to USD 90-95, representing an almost 45-50 percent increase in the country's crude import bill. Moda highlighted that diesel, which constitutes roughly 50 percent of crude oil converted into fuels, makes transportation and logistics particularly susceptible to higher energy prices.

Rising diesel prices could subsequently increase the cost of goods transported nationwide, contributing to widespread inflationary pressures across the economy. Additionally, higher petrol prices affect household finances by reducing disposable income and savings, ultimately impacting consumer spending and economic growth. Oil companies face marketing margin pressure as they cannot fully pass on the increase in crude oil prices to consumers.

To diversify into petrochemicals and non-fuel retail businesses, companies aim to safeguard overall profitability, with petrochemical margins around 15-25 percent and non-fuel retail businesses generating roughly 15-20 percent or higher margins. While new exploration projects, particularly in deepwater and ultra-deepwater areas, may take 8-10 years to yield results, Moda emphasized the importance of accelerating these efforts to enhance India's energy security beyond 2030.

In the near term, electrification of two-wheelers and the transition of heavy commercial vehicles to LNG are seen as important measures to reduce crude oil consumption. Moda anticipates that roughly 40-60 percent of new two-wheelers could transition to electric vehicles by 2030, potentially decreasing petrol consumption, saving foreign exchange, and lowering India's crude oil import requirements.

Despite elevated crude prices, India has maintained energy supplies through diversified imports and strengthened geopolitical relationships, now purchasing oil from more countries than it did two decades ago. This diversification enhances India's negotiating power and flexibility with suppliers, ensuring uninterrupted energy supplies are crucial for sustaining the nation's economic expansion.