If the Democrats win the U.S. midterms, what would change for Canada?

As American voters head to the polls on Tuesday for the U.S. midterms, many in Ottawa are closely watching the results for their implications on the ongoing trade war and threats against Canada. Since taking office for his second term in January 2025, President Donald Trump has escalated his economic attacks against Canada through tariff policies and trade wars. Democratic candidates have seized on these issues, linking them to affordability struggles faced by American consumers.

Polls suggest that Democrats are performing well across the country, with some predicting their control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. However, it remains uncertain whether these results would lead to significant changes for Canada.

Canada, traditionally not considered an election issue in the U.S., has become one this year due to Trump's hostile stance towards the country. Democratic candidates such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine have highlighted the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on Canadian exports, making Canada an enemy in the eyes of many voters.

While a Democratic sweep of both chambers appears unlikely to change the current tariffs imposed via executive order, it could potentially lead to a more confrontational approach from Trump. The president has indicated he may become "Mr. Veto" if Democrats take control, making it difficult for them to override his tariff decisions without a two-thirds majority vote.

However, a Democratic sweep does present an opportunity for impeachment of Trump, although there is no guarantee this would result in his removal from office. The Senate would need a two-thirds vote to convict and remove him, a threshold that has eluded impeachment proceedings thus far.

Despite these uncertainties, Canadians should not assume that a Democratic-controlled Congress would automatically oppose tariffs. Even with Democratic representation in both houses, individual representatives may have differing views on tariff policies. Trade negotiators in Canada should work to persuade their Democratic colleagues of the potential benefits of reduced tariffs for American voters and businesses.

U.S. Ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, has acknowledged that American officials are closely monitoring Canadian politicians for signs of election interference ahead of the midterms. However, Prime Minister Mark Carney rejected these claims, stating that there is no merit in the allegations of Canadian interference in American elections.