Global accounting reveals economic toll of ecosystem losses from rising seas
A global accounting puts the value of ecosystem services that could be lost to sea level rise at well over 100 billion in 2020 international dollars (Int$2020) per year by 2100, according to a study—and the nations that are likely to lose the most are not the highest emitters.
A study estimates that global ecosystem services could lose over 100 billion international dollars per year by 2100 due to sea level rise. Qinglong Shao and colleagues calculated this value using different climate model scenarios. Wetlands face the greatest relative loss, potentially losing 1.21%-2.20% of their extent depending on the scenario.
The countries expected to suffer the most losses in absolute terms are China, Myanmar, Brazil, Russia, and Vietnam. However, the relative losses are highest in low-lying coastal and delta countries like the Netherlands, Egypt, the Bahamas, Belgium, and Iraq. Interestingly, the countries that have contributed the most to global carbon dioxide emissions up to 2024 are not the ones that will lose the most ecosystem value per capita.
This study highlights the unequal distribution of losses from sea level rise and the potential need for equitable loss and damage financing.
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