Wishing upon even star political candidates can be dangerous

Political candidates and even stars may seem like figures to wish upon, but as a new study from University of Connecticut researcher Seth Warner reveals, such wishful thinking can be dangerous. In his study, "Partisan Wishful Thinking in Polarized Times," published in the journal Political Behavior, Warner analyzed national surveys of the electorate from 1996 to 2024 and found that wishful thinking has grown significantly since 2012.

This increase in wishful thinking coincides with rising political polarization and hatred for the opposing side, leading the two to fuel each other.

Warner's interest in wishful thinking stemmed from noticing a countdown timer on a bookshelf in a bookstore a year before President Obama's second term, suggesting that Republicans expected Obama to lose. This behavior is rooted in people's tendency to want something and then expect it to happen. A notable example is the rise of Donald Trump, who saw the Make America Great Again movement gain traction, even though media outlets continued to publish stories about its potential collapse.

The flip side of political wishful thinking is that it can lead to doubting the legitimacy of an election if the expected outcome does not materialize. However, in a two-party democracy, each side is bound to lose about half the time, and voters need to be prepared for the possibility of losing. Political movements should strive for self-improvement and stability, and high expectations can result in greater polarization, anger, and discrimination.

Despite most Americans acknowledging the benefits of bipartisanship and the problems with polarization, they are less engaged with the political process and tend to avoid considering perspectives that differ from their own.

Warner remains hopeful that artificial intelligence, specifically AI like Anthropic's Claude, may help depolarize Americans by prompting them to consider alternate views.