What if the polls are wrong? How the Democrats’ ‘blue wave’ could become a tsunami or fade into a ripple

On election night in 2016, the polls had incorrectly predicted that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. Although she secured the popular vote, polls failed to capture the sentiment of the elusive Trump voter, leading to a surprising result. In the years that followed, the U.S. polling industry admitted its failure to understand Trump's supporters.

Now, as the 2022 midterm elections approach, polls indicate a potential "blue wave" with Democrats leading by eight points in the generic congressional ballot, similar to the margin they held in 2018 when they regained control of the House. Additionally, Democratic candidates are leading in several states that President Trump won in 2024, including Texas, Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska.

However, the advantage is small and falls within the margin of error, leaving open the possibility of either a significant win for Democrats or a minimal shift that results in control of only the House.

Polls are only estimates, and a small statistical error could drastically alter the outcome for Democrats. According to Charles Franklin, a prominent pollster, polls tend to miss the mark consistently in the same direction across the country. This cascading effect occurred in the 2006 and 2014 midterms when polls overestimated Democratic support, and in the 2010 and 2018 midterms when they overestimated Republican support.

This pattern has also appeared in presidential elections, with polls underestimating both Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Franklin explains that this happens because local races are closely tied to national political forces, creating a prevailing current that impacts all races in the same direction.

Currently, these forces are adversely affecting Trump's party due to low approval ratings stemming from inflation, gasoline prices, and broader economic concerns. It is possible that the anti-Trump sentiment is overrepresented in polls, prompting pollsters to identify a significant number of "happy" Democrats who are unwilling to admit their dislike for the president.

The Democratic lead in the House is substantial, and Republicans would only retain their majority if polling errors exceed those seen in any of the last nine elections. Franklin believes that the real question is not whether Democrats will win the House, but by how much. A gain of 15 to 20 seats would be plausible, 20 to 25 seats would be "pretty good," and a sweep of 30 seats or more would be considered "a great night."

However, Republicans have an advantage with 31 senators not up for reelection, and a single polling error could impact multiple races simultaneously, potentially resulting in a majority for Trump's party. Conversely, if polls underestimate Democrats, particularly in traditionally Republican states, Democrats could capture the Senate with 52 or 53 seats, ending up with a majority. In either scenario, the potential for either a "blue wave" or a "tsunami" exists.