US economy under Donald Trump in five charts

The 2022 US midterm elections are approaching, with voters' financial situations potentially deciding which party gains control of Congress. Recent polls indicate that President Donald Trump's economic policies, including his tariff changes, the Iran conflict, and overall economic management, will be crucial issues for voters. Many registered voters consider the economy "extremely important" in this election year, with costs of living, income/wealth distribution, and petrol prices topping the list of concerns.

According to an Ipsos poll, 47% of voters view the cost of living as the single most important factor in their votes, while only 17% approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, and 26% approve of his overall handling of the economy. Consumer confidence has waned due to rising costs, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping to 91.7 in October after falling for a long period.

Despite this, consumer spending grew by 3.4% in the third quarter, showing the US economy's resilience amid the Iran war-induced energy price shock. Inflation has eased since peaking at 9.1% in 2022, falling to 3% during Trump's second term beginning in January 2025, but has since risen again due to the Iran war and AI-driven investment.

Petrol prices have risen significantly, with the average driver now paying $4.20 per gallon, a $1.17 increase from last year. The Federal Reserve, during its easing cycle when Trump took office, influenced the 10-year Treasury yield through market expectations and inflation outlook. The bond market has suffered due to energy-driven inflation, AI buildout, and heavy government debt issuance, leading to high 10-year Treasury yields.

The S&P 500, which Trump frequently uses as an economic barometer, has seen a surge of more than 10% in 2022, largely driven by the Magnificent Seven stocks.