Trump, US midterms, Tehran: 8 key factors driving Iran war
While the US midterms could open a window for diplomacy with Iran, they could also unleash a new military escalation. DW spoke to analysts to identify eight factors that could tip the balance towards war or peace.
The US Republican Party faces uncertainty as it prepares for the midterm elections with Donald Trump's administration struggling to resolve or win the Iran war. Analysts predict various outcomes based on the election results, which could either reduce Trump's focus on foreign policy or pressure Congress over the war's costs. Iran's nuclear program remains a contentious issue, with the US demanding concessions before talks begin and Iran wanting sanctions lifted first.
If Iran fails to move closer to negotiations, the risk of renewed conflict rises. Israel's recent election resulted in no clear winner, potentially making the transition period dangerous for renewed escalation. Netanyahu's rival, Gadi Eisenkot, may be more deferential to America, but ties with Trump could lead to different coordination.
Israel's security concerns about Iran are not solely dependent on Netanyahu's decisions, as the security establishment and ruling coalition would still shape the risk of an attack. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key arena for military tensions, but cutting off energy exports there alone won't trigger escalation. Houthi rebels in Yemen, while ideologically close to Iran, are driven by domestic concerns and may not necessarily escalate tensions with the US.
Written by urgent.news from DW English (Top Stories)'s reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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