TRADE (DIS)AGREEMENT: What now? — Experts weigh in after Trump boots SA from Agoa

South Africa will no longer benefit from duty-free access to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) starting next year, a decision announced by the US government on Monday. South Africa had agreed to US concerns about trade practices and corruption, but the move has sparked concern from various stakeholders.

Citrus farmers warned that the removal from Agoa would deal a severe blow to their industry, with Cosatu echoing those concerns, highlighting the potential job losses and hardship for thousands of agricultural and manufacturing workers. The US trade representative cited South Africa's alleged violations of Agoa's eligibility criteria, including corruption and threats to US national security.

South African Trade and Industry Minister Tau acknowledged the loss of Agoa, stating that the government would provide support to affected companies. However, he emphasized that Agoa represented only a small portion of South Africa's economic relationship with the US and that the government was working to diversify export markets.

The citrus growers' association noted that the exclusion from Agoa would subject South African citrus exports to higher US tariffs, potentially leading to job losses in the Western and Northern Cape regions. Despite the challenges, SA's removal from Agoa does not mean a total ban on US market access, as some products would still face reduced tariffs.

Experts maintain that while the decision is disappointing, it is unlikely to be catastrophic, as past cases of higher US tariffs have not entirely halted South African agricultural exports to the US.