The Commodities Feed: US midterm elections key for oil market

Oil prices surged to their highest level in nearly a year on Friday, closing above $113 per barrel. This marked a 2.4% increase from the previous day. The escalation in tensions between the US and Iran following the US midterm elections appears to be the key driver behind the price surge. Iran has been holding talks with Qatari mediators, but it remains uncertain whether these talks will result in any meaningful progress.

Russia, on the other hand, has resumed attacks on Ukrainian refineries, which has contributed to a slowdown in diesel exports. OPEC+ maintained its output targets unchanged for December, despite the ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf. This has resulted in many members producing below target. Speculators have increased their long positions in ICE Brent, with net speculative long increasing by 3,576 lots to 245,457 lots.

This suggests that the market may be pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium. Meanwhile, European gas prices saw a significant increase, with TTF settling near EUR104 per megawatt-hour. Colder-than-usual weather forecasts for Northwest Europe have led to potential large storage draws, indicating that the heating season is now underway.

In the metals market, gold hit a one-year low as investors sold off due to concerns over inflation and the possibility of longer-term higher interest rates. Silver has also taken a significant hit, sliding more than 6% and extending its decline to roughly 18%. Copper prices also moved lower as the wider risk-off mood spilled into markets.

Despite the pullback in futures prices, the LME cash-to-three-month backwardation remained elevated, suggesting refined copper availability remains constrained. In the agriculture sector, corn prices fell nearly 11% in the latest month, driven by increased harvest supplies, weaker export demand, and easing concerns over Black Sea disruptions.