South African factory mood remains downbeat for fifth month

The African National Congress (ANC) is projected to lose control of most of South Africa's major cities in the upcoming local elections, according to recent polling data. This could potentially disrupt the power dynamics within the national coalition government. Several polls indicate that the ANC's remaining support is increasingly concentrated in smaller towns and rural provinces, while opposition parties are making significant gains in the biggest cities that are crucial to South Africa's largest economy.

The local government elections will determine who will run over 250 municipalities responsible for essential services such as water, sanitation, and waste collection. This marks the ANC's first nationwide test since losing its parliamentary majority in 2024, a first in the democratic era. Recent Ipsos poll data shows the ANC's national support at an "all-time low" of 30%, with only 30% of respondents in Johannesburg and Tshwane indicating they would vote for the ANC, compared to 10% in Durban, where the populist uMkhonto weSizwe Party is leading.

ANC support remains near 60% in provinces like Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, which are less urbanized compared to Gauteng or the Western Cape. Political analysts suggest that the election results could lead to coalition governments in most metropolitan municipalities, a shift that would mark a significant reconfiguration of South Africa's political landscape.