Slowing Intra-Asia Chemical, Palms Spot Freight Fixtures Deter Trades

Tanker freight in Asia remains strong into November, potentially impacting chemical and palm cargo flows for the rest of the fourth quarter. Despite fleet growth, liquid bulk shipping costs are rising, while an ongoing El Nino phenomenon is prolonging palm freight increases. Port congestion in Southeast Asia and India is causing tanker pile-ups, limiting supply of tonnage to the region.

Freight indications have already increased since September but continue to rise into November, even with new vessel additions and pre-Diwali holiday restocking in India tapering off. Diwali, a major Hindu holiday in India, has led to increased palm freight levels, with Malaysia's palm oil exports from H1 October expanding by 43.2% month-on-month.

Rising crude oil prices have made palm oil more competitive as a biodiesel feedstock, further boosting regional palm trades. The El Nino phenomenon is expected to reduce yields and disrupt palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia, affecting palm freight. While chemical freight indications have been mixed, gasoline blending trades are still supporting southbound chemical freight.

However, securing tanker spaces remains challenging for liquid bulk, including chemical and palm shipments, through November and beyond. Shipowners are reluctant to release tanker spaces on a spot basis, hoping freight indications will continue to improve into November.