Sales of new-energy vehicles are surging in South Africa

South Africa's revised 10-year electricity outlook has been hailed as optimistic, but the assumptions behind it require careful scrutiny. The National Transmission Company South Africa's Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook (MTSAO) 2027-2036, released on October 30, 2026, outlines the conditions necessary for avoiding electricity shortages over the next decade.

However, the report came just after the government announced the failure of its first gas-to-power procurement round, raising questions about the security of the MTSAO's reference case, which heavily relies on the success of gas generation.

The MTSAO's reference case assumes a significant rise in electricity demand, improved performance of Eskom plants, substantial new renewable energy and storage capacity, major transmission upgrades, and new gas-fired generation from 2032. However, the report acknowledges that this is not a low-demand forecast. By 2036, the demand projection increases sent-out electricity to 329.7 TWh and peak demand to 49.1 GW, compared to 238.3 TWh and 35.8 GW in 2026. This highlights the importance of delivering new generation to replace ageing plants.

While the reference case claims that unserved energy will be limited to 13.42 GWh and 377 hours by 2036, the hourly, network-constrained simulations are conditional outcomes that are not stated with certainty. Additionally, coal retirements put Eskom's energy availability factor (EAF) under the spotlight. The MTSAO assumes a 70% EAF by 2031, up from 66% in 2027, but a 65% EAF in the downside scenario.

A large portion of the existing Eskom fleet is set to be retired by 2036, including 8.75 GW in 2029 and 2030. This reduction in capacity is critical, as the MTSAO assumes about 16.2 GW of Eskom capacity will be shut down by 2036, including 1,150 MW from Cahora Bassa and 1,005 MW from the Avon and Dedisa peakers.