Sakaja quits UDA, joins ODM

Sakaja’s decision to join the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) enhances the party's prospects ahead of the 2027 General Election in Nairobi, while posing questions about President William Ruto's political clout in the city. The former United Democratic Alliance (UDA) governor formally joined ODM on November 2, 2026, following weeks of signals that he might depart from his previous political allegiance.

This shift reshapes the political landscape in Nairobi, where ODM boasts strong grassroots support and had previously cooperated with Sakaja despite his UDA affiliation. For Ruto, the political ramifications are significant as his party loses the advantage of having Sakaja formally linked to its ticket; however, this does not equate to the immediate loss of UDA support in the city or the collapse of President Ruto's Nairobi networks.

Sakaja's entry equips ODM with an incumbent mayor, which could bolster the party's standing in the race for Nairobi leadership. His experience and visibility in City Hall may further strengthen the party's position in the election. Nevertheless, an ODM membership does not guarantee a nomination. In September 2026, ODM delegates in Nairobi rejected efforts to secure Sakaja the party's gubernatorial ticket, endorsing George Aladwa from Makadara as their preferred candidate.

The party emphasized that candidates should be chosen through its nomination process. This development also alters the relationship between UDA and the Nairobi county government. President Ruto and Sakaja had previously collaborated under the UDA banner, with the governor winning his 2022 election on a UDA ticket. This political alliance provided the ruling party with a direct line to Nairobi's leadership.

That arrangement is no longer in place, although Sakaja's departure does not constitute a complete political break from the President. UDA continues to maintain its own leaders, supporters, and structures in Nairobi, and its capacity to mobilize these networks and influence the 2027 county contest will be tested independently of Sakaja's decision.

The development is also part of ongoing negotiations between ODM and UDA regarding potential political collaboration ahead of the next election. ODM leaders have made it clear that any partnership with Ruto must be based on negotiated terms rather than unconditional support. Sakaja's move is critical because Nairobi's political dynamics cannot be solely defined by party affiliation.

The governor must contend with his record in office, maintain support from residents, and navigate intra-party competition. ODM, on the other hand, must weigh the appeal of having an incumbent governor against the preferences of its members who have already nominated their own candidates. The central question is whether Sakaja can leverage his move to create a cohesive ODM campaign or if the party's nomination process will reveal competing interests.

For Ruto and UDA, the challenge is to demonstrate that their political relevance in Nairobi remains intact despite their past association with Sakaja. Ultimately, Sakaja's political shift is a significant realignment in the capital, but its electoral outcomes will hinge on the party's nominations, alliances, and the decisions made by Nairobi voters in 2027.