Russia’s HIV epidemic is worsening despite official claims to the contrary. Here’s what the numbers really show.

In mid-October 2026, a conference on HIV research and clinical practice took place in Moscow. The outcome was not positive, with several concerning points raised by HIV-specializing doctors. Despite fewer new infections and deaths, the number of people living with HIV continues to rise, with 1.5 new infections for every death. Only half of those diagnosed have a suppressed viral load, allowing them to potentially pass the virus on to others.

In 2025, hospital-associated HIV and hepatitis B, C, and D outbreaks reached their highest levels in 15 years, with eight outbreaks affecting 104 people. Two HIV transmission cases through blood transfusions were recorded in 2026, the first in six years. In 27 regions, the epidemic has reached the generalized stage, with the virus found in over 1% of pregnant women.

However, these figures have been cited since 2021, with other estimates suggesting 14 regions and a decreasing number of pregnant women diagnosed with HIV each year.

The outlook for HIV in Russia is grim. If current approaches continue, the number of Russians living with HIV is projected to reach 1.47 million by 2030, up from 1.23 million today. Additionally, HIV could spread more rapidly in regions affected by war and those with high levels of migration. Russia has become the leading European country in new HIV diagnoses per 100,000 people, followed by Ukraine and North Macedonia.

Interestingly, the Health Ministry, Russia's public health watchdog, claims that HIV incidence in Russia has reached a historic low due to the government's strategy over the past decade. However, this perception differs from the actual numbers. According to Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's public health watchdog, 1.23 million people were diagnosed with HIV at the end of 2025, representing 0.8% of the population.

However, the Health Ministry only counts those registered for ongoing medical care, not those who have tested positive but are not receiving care. This discrepancy leaves a gap of 385,555 people between those with a confirmed diagnosis and those receiving ongoing medical care.

The decline in incidence may be due to the Health Ministry's shift towards testing less likely populations for HIV. Testing has nearly doubled over the past decade, from 28 million in 2014 to 54 million in 2024, but the study population is increasingly less representative of those at risk. The share of key populations, the most at-risk groups, has nearly halved, from 5.8% in 2014 to 3% in 2023.

To address this, anonymous and nonjudgmental approaches are crucial in reaching key populations and connecting them with treatment.