Resilience of Gulf oil infrastructure has its limits
Pipelines have kept exports flowing, but depleted inventories and demand destruction add pressure to a stressed energy system.
The resilience of Gulf oil infrastructure is being tested as the US-Iran conflict escalates. Eight months into the war, it's evident that no amount of operational preparedness can safeguard energy infrastructure from a protracted political struggle. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have displayed remarkable adaptability, activating contingency plans, swiftly executing repairs, and ensuring customers receive their supply.
However, their success may be limited as the global energy system struggles to return to pre-war oil flows. Gulf exporters have managed to keep the oil flowing despite threats in Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, but this resilience should not be equated with future supply security. With global inventories depleted by nearly 1 billion barrels, Brent crude is trading above $110 a barrel, and analysts attribute $40 of this surge to geopolitical risks.
The energy industry estimates that the demand has declined by around 3 million barrels per day due to the higher prices. Energy executives at a recent industry conference emphasized the need for increased investment in upstream activities and refineries, as Europe has already witnessed a 25% decline in its refineries over the past two decades.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, highlighted energy as the biggest challenge facing his industry during the ADIPEC conference. With the looming prospect of another round of war, the oil sector is expected to face even more demand destruction and reduced availability.
Written by urgent.news from Semafor's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
