Property investors vanish following negative gearing changes

The recent federal budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax have significantly impacted property investors, leading to a sharp decline in investor credit growth. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia's September data, investor credit growth reached only 0.24%, a substantial drop from the peak of 0.96% in December 2025. This trend has persisted, with quarterly investor credit growth now at 1.0%, the lowest level since March 2024.

The federal budget modifications have reduced investors' borrowing capacity by approximately 30%, primarily due to lower after-tax cash flow. Consequently, investors now require higher rental yields to justify deals. Despite recent increases in gross rental yields, driven by falling property prices and rising rents, these yields remain low compared to risk-free savings accounts, which offer returns exceeding 5%.

Investors must account for additional costs such as maintenance, land taxes, mortgage interest, and other expenses. With Australian dwelling values experiencing their steepest decline in over four decades, down by 6.7% nationally since March, and likely further declines due to rising interest rates, the investment landscape has become less appealing. Moreover, risk-free deposit rates hover around 5%, making it unattractive to borrow in a declining market, especially when taking on negative cash flow.

A pro-cyclical factor contributing to the situation is the exit of investors from the market following changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax. This exodus is partly responsible for the declining property values, which in turn discourages further investment. As housing values reset lower and rental yields increase, the downward spiral appears to be deepening. However, it remains uncertain whether this cycle has reached its nadir.