Oil plunges 8% as US-Iran peace hopes ease Hormuz fears

Brent crude prices plunged by more than 8%, erasing some of the gains made during October, as hopes grew for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Brent dropped $9.32, or 8.22%, to $104.10 a barrel, while WTI fell $8.10, or 7.78%, to $96.02, below the $100 threshold. WTI also fell $13.40, or 11.29%, to $105.30 per barrel.

The sell-off followed weekend mediation talks between Iran and Qatar, with oil initially falling more than 4% after a draft proposal to end the war circulated. Analysts noted that the weekend passed without significant military escalation, which helped to alleviate some of the pressure on prices. The drop comes after a strong October, with Brent gaining 13.6% and WTI 15.2% in the month, with Brent hitting a six-month high after a tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, analysts cautioned that this was hope rather than a definitive resolution of the conflict. The decline reflected improved expectations for diplomacy rather than a finalized deal. The 11.29% fall in Murban carries a "7 hours" timestamp, indicating that the quote is stale and less reliable compared to Brent and WTI. Oil has become a highly sensitive market, where diplomacy and military risk can swing prices daily, while physical supply remains below prewar levels, keeping crude prices elevated even after Monday's drop.

The lower prices could help ease inflation and import bills for oil-importing countries like the Philippines, where fuel costs have put pressure on the peso and prices. However, relief will depend on whether the drop persists and if pump prices follow suit. The next developments to watch will be the Iran-Qatar mediation, any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the upcoming US midterms.

Some analysts warn that Brent could reach $120 if tensions reignite after the election, and local pump prices may lag behind by several days. Trump has warned of a 'not-so-nice end' in the Iran-US conflict, while Vance has demanded enrichment cuts as the oil blockade hits Iran's economy. Oil prices remain volatile amid Hormuz risks and the potential recovery of Gulf exports, with Brent staying above $100 and WTI at $88.83.