Oil drops almost 4% on hopes of progress in talks on ending US-Iran war

Oil prices dropped nearly 4 percent on Monday as negotiations between Iranian and Qatari officials on a deal to end the US-Israeli conflict in Iran brought optimism that supply disruptions in the Middle East might be reduced. Iranian representatives left the talks in Doha on Sunday, according to an official, not due to any issues in the negotiations.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, stated that hopes for diplomatic progress, along with the lack of significant military escalation over the weekend, have eased some of the immediate pressure on oil prices. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the purpose of the ongoing talks was to continue consultations with Qatari mediators, and that Tehran was prepared for both defense and diplomacy.

The talks followed an increase in attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, although there are signs of rising shipments from major exporters. In October, Saudi Arabia increased crude exports despite attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on its energy infrastructure. Since the outbreak of the Iran war in February, the world has drained nearly 1 billion oil barrels from inventories, according to the CEO of ADNOC, the state-owned oil company in Abu Dhabi.

Some analysts predict a further rise in oil prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its oil price forecasts on Sunday due to elevated supply risks, projecting Brent could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 if Gulf oil output remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. Potential triggers for further price increases include intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a persistent risk premium, according to the bank's report.