New dementia risk tool designed for the countries that need it most
An international team led by Northumbria University has developed and validated a simple five-factor risk score to identify older people at elevated risk of dementia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)—where around 60% of the world's dementia cases now occur.
An international research team, led by Northumbria University, has created a new dementia risk tool specifically for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This development is crucial as the vast majority of dementia cases now occur in these countries, which have not had tools designed for their unique contexts.
The five-factor risk score, based on everyday information gathered through conversation, can predict an individual's three-year risk of developing dementia. Scores range from 0 to 9, with higher scores indicating a greater likelihood of dementia. For example, a score of 0 suggests a 1% chance, while a score of 9 indicates a nearly 19% chance.
The tool was validated using data from over 11,000 older adults across seven countries and three continents. It achieved a clinically useful accuracy score of 0.75. Importantly, the model was built to be low-cost and easy to apply, requiring only simple conversations with older adults and their caregivers. This makes it suitable for research purposes, such as recruitment of participants for clinical trials, rather than general population screening.
Researchers emphasize that while the tool is a significant step forward, it must be further validated in additional regions, particularly South Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa.
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