Leaving Agoa is a 3.4% tariff bump, not a door slammed on the US market

South Africa’s exit from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) doesn’t imply the US market will be entirely inaccessible. The country will still have access, albeit with a marginal increase in tariffs. Wandile Sihlobo, South Africa’s Agriculture and Land Envoy and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, stated in his upcoming book that although the US administration has recently introduced higher tariffs on various countries, South African products would still be subject to an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of about 3.4%.

Currently, South African goods enter the US market at 12.5% tariffs, which would rise to 15.9% without Agoa. This slight increase in tariffs would reduce the competitiveness of certain South African products. However, it is crucial to note that South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US have remained robust, even during periods of higher tariffs, such as the "Liberation Day Tariffs".

During 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US amounted to $504-million, representing a 3% decrease from the previous year. Despite the challenges, a notable 90-day pause in the second quarter of 2025 led to an increase in exports. Yet, exports dipped sharply in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with a 39% drop to $81-million in the final quarter of the year.

Nevertheless, the US remains a significant market for South African agriculture, representing around 4% of the country’s total agricultural exports. Major exports include citrus, berries, grapes, raisins, wine, fruit juices, apples, pears, apricots, and nuts. South Africa’s graduation from Agoa should be viewed in context, and while it may pose a challenge for certain industries, it does not necessarily signify a catastrophic outcome.