Labour races ahead of Reform and Tories with eight-point lead

Labour has widened its lead over Reform UK and the Conservatives in recent polls, creating an eight-point gap as of November. According to City AM/Freshwater Strategy polling, 30% of voters supported Labour, while 22% backed the combined Reform UK and Conservatives. This significant gap suggests that Labour's leader, Andy Burnham, is in a stronger position amid discussions about potential early elections.

Prime Minister Burnham has expressed his intention to seek a mandate to implement his 10-year plan, stating his desire for change in political processes. The Prime Minister did not rule out the possibility of calling a snap election within the next year, though he believed further elections could hinder progress.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party both maintained their poll numbers, with 10% each. Burnham's popularity surge has put him in a favorable position to call for an election to address issues such as the EU, pension reforms, and public control. A majority of voters (52%) prefer to see an election by the end of 2028, with 22% hoping for it to occur next spring.

However, only a little over half of the respondents believe an election will take place by the end of 2028, with 28% of voters anticipating elections in 2029.

The Prime Minister and the Conservative Party's Kemi Badenoch are likely to be concerned about their approval ratings and the impact they may have on party support. Burnham's net approval rating has increased by 16 points, whereas Badenoch's rating has improved slightly to five points. In contrast, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage's approval rating remains negative at -21, as do other senior Labour figures such as Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting.

Polling by Freshwater Strategy surveyed 1,219 eligible UK voters aged 18+ between October 30th and November 1st, 2026. The margin of error is +/- 2.8%, and the data is weighted to be representative of the UK voting population.