Imported iron ore margin narrows to 0.04 yuan/mt

The latest data from the Shanghai Iron & Steel Association (SMM) reveals that the average margin for imported iron ore has narrowed significantly to just 0.04 yuan per metric ton. This sharp decrease in margin is primarily attributed to a combination of lower port spot prices and higher freight costs. The situation is further exacerbated by the oversupply of iron ore and decreasing demand in the market.

Currently, there are 148.05 million metric tons of iron ore stored at the 35 major ports across China, marking a slight increase of 300,000 metric tons compared to the previous survey. However, the average daily outbound volume from these ports has decreased by 35,000 metric tons, now standing at 3.175 million metric tons per day. This decline in outbound volume indicates a cooling demand for iron ore in the domestic market.

Despite the bearish fundamentals of iron ore, the outlook remains cautious as iron ore production in the country is expected to decline further in the coming week. This expected production drop could potentially further weaken the demand for iron ore, potentially capping any upside in prices. Additionally, the macroeconomic factors also fail to provide any strong support, keeping the prices range-bound for the upcoming week.

While there might be some potential disruptions to prices due to negotiations on long-term contracts and environmental production curbs in northern China, the overall impact is expected to be minimal in the short term. As freight rates continue to rise, it is anticipated that the import margin for iron ore will gradually narrow in the near future.