Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts, sees Brent upside at US$140 a barrel

New York-based Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts, anticipating a potential spike to US$140 a barrel by 2027 if Gulf oil output remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average. The bank increased its December Brent crude oil price forecast from US$90 to US$105 a barrel, and raised its US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast from US$81 to US$94 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs also upped its average 2027 forecasts for Brent from US$80 to US$88 a barrel, and for WTI from US$73 to US$78 a barrel. A bullish price scenario could see Brent reaching US$140 and averaging around US$130 in 2027 if Gulf output stays below the 2025 average. The bank forecasts a higher risk premium, reflecting potential downside risks to Middle East supply, the persistence of major oil supply shocks, and the difficulty in achieving lasting diplomatic breakthroughs.

Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium are key triggers for a potential upside, the bank noted. Brent's price slipped more than one percent to US$111.84 on Monday after Iranian and Qatari officials held talks to resolve the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. However, Brent ended October at its highest level in six months due to concerns about the US-Iran conflict escalating again after the US midterm elections.

The Mideast and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, coupled with broader geopolitical fragmentation, present high disruption risks, with the timing and location of disruptions being nearly impossible to predict, according to Goldman Sachs.