Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Oil Price Forecast to $105
Goldman Sachs commodity analysts have revised their price forecast for Brent crude upwards, now expecting the benchmark to average $105 in December and remain elevated next year as well. This represents a nearly 17% increase from Goldman’s previous December forecast of $90 per barrel, with the team citing heightened risks to supply security, as reported by Bloomberg. The revision, which is the…
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude prices to $105 per barrel in December, marking a 17% rise from their previous estimate of $90 per barrel. This upward revision is attributed to growing concerns about the security of oil supplies, despite reports indicating that Persian Gulf oil flows are returning to pre-war levels or even surpassing them.
Goldman analysts predict that Brent crude will average $88 per barrel next year, up from their earlier forecast of $80 per barrel. ANZ commodity analysts recently echoed this sentiment, revising their Brent crude forecast up by 10%, now expecting the benchmark to end 2026 at $105 per barrel. UBS, on the other hand, expects the benchmark to reach $110 per barrel by the end of the current year.
The consensus among analysts is that the only factor capable of consistently lowering oil prices is a peace deal between Iran and the United States. Goldman's Daan Struyven stated that a sustainable diplomatic solution is necessary for a rapid reduction in the risk premium. While there is a recent resurgence of optimism following reports of three-day talks between Iranian and Qatari officials on a potential peace agreement, the likelihood of such a deal being reached by the end of the year remains slim.
The U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for tomorrow, are being closely watched as both Iran and the U.S. signal readiness for both peace and potential conflict.
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